Vladimir Putin’s “peace mission” with tanks in the Donbas is just the start of a major operation.
It is likely to be the defining contest for European and global security since 1989 and the end of the Cold War.
The next phase is likely to start within 48 hours.
The key objective was buried in Putin’s 65-minute speech recognising the independence of Luhansk and Donetsk.
“Ukraine doesn’t really exist as a country historically and has never done so,” he declared.
This is his objective — to remove the Zelensky government and make Ukraine a post-Soviet satellite of Putin’s vision of the new Russian empire, along with Belarus, Kazakhstan and other members of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation.
That is why he will use all the forces now at his disposal.
The navy could attack along the Sea of Azov and Black Sea coast — with Odessa being a target for diversionary operations. The main aim in this sector will be to link Crimea and Donbas to Russia’s western border.
The port of Mariupol could now be high on the list of targets in the effort to drive the corridor through to Crimea. The prime target must be Kiev, the symbol of Ukraine independence and opposition to the Putin model for Russia.
Air power as much as tanks and Spetznatz special forces could be used to trash the Ukrainian capital. The toughest missions would be for the ground troops, the infantry and national guard militias.
They would have the job of holding down a restless population in the largest country in Europe outside Russia. If the campaign wears on into weeks and months, two features are likely to make the crisis global.
There will be a long-awaited crunch in the gas markets — which Russia itself won’t manage. More ominously, there is the lesson China may draw.
If the Western allies hesitate before Putin’s use of force, Xi Jinping and the People’s Liberation Army may think the time is right to grab Taiwan.
