UK recovery weak, warns think-tank

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research has warned that Britain's economic recovery has so far been weak
12 April 2012

A leading think-tank has warned the economic recovery in the UK is the weakest of any since the end of the First World War.

The warning came as the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said its monthly estimates suggest gross domestic product (GDP) grew at 0.5% in the three months to September, compared to a revised 0.4% in the quarter to August.

NIESR said the level of GDP in the period is still 4% below the pre-recession peak - suggesting the recovery is the weakest since 1918.

The figures for the third quarter may surprise some economists who have forecast near stagnant growth between July and September.

The figures come amid deepening fears over the health of the country's recovery and after the Bank of England announced plans to pump an extra £75 billion in to the economy to stimulate growth.

If NIESR's estimate is correct, the third quarter growth of 0.5% would represent a solid bounceback from the 0.1% recorded between April and June. The third-quarter GDP figure will be confirmed by the Office for National Statistics on November 1.

The think-tank still warned growth had been "anaemic" in the UK over the last year.

A Treasury spokesman said the figures supported the Government's case for its deficit-busting austerity measures.

He said: "These figures show that, while the UK cannot isolate itself from what is happening to our major trading partners, the action being taken by the Government to tackle the deficit and rebalance the economy is helping the UK economy to continue to grow.

"Other data published today similarly shows that the economy is recovering but that the financial turbulence in the Eurozone and the weaker outlook for global growth will mean that the recovery will be choppy."

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