Coronavirus could lead to 250,000 UK deaths unless social distancing measures ramped up, ministers warned

Coronavirus: the symptoms

The coronavirus outbreak will lead to the deaths of about 250,000 people in the UK unless more draconian measures are introduced, scientists have warned.

The Imperial College Covid-19 response team, which has been advising ministers, said that even with the "social distancing" plans set out by the Government the health system will be "overwhelmed many times over”.

In its latest report, it said the only "viable strategy" is a Chinese-style policy of "suppression" involving the social distancing of the entire population. Such measures would need to be maintained potentially for 18 months or more until an effective vaccine became available, it suggested.

The stark warning came after Boris Johnson unveiled unprecedented peacetime measures to try to control the spread of Covid-19.

In the first of his daily No 10 press conferences, the Prime Minister called on people to stay away from pubs, clubs and theatres and to avoid all non-essential contacts and travel.

Anyone living in a household with somebody who has the symptoms of a persistent cough or fever was told to isolate themselves for 14 days.

Special guidance will be issued by the NHS for the 1.4 million people most at risk from the disease - including the elderly with underlying health conditions - on further measures they need to take to "shield" themselves from it.

Mr Johnson said the measures - thought to be taken in light of the death toll warning in the Imperial College report - were needed at the UK was approaching the "fast growth part of the upward curve" in the number of cases.

"Without drastic action, cases could double every five or six days," he said.

Empty Europe during Coronavirus - In pictures

1/34

However, the Imperial College report warned that even with such a dramatic closing down of normal life, the surge capacity limits of health systems of both the UK and the US - which is adopting similar measures - were likely to be "exceeded many times over".

"In the most effective mitigation strategy examined, which leads to a single, relatively short epidemic (case isolation, household quarantine and social distancing of the elderly), the surge limits for both general ward and ICU (intensive care unit) beds would be exceeded by at least eight-fold under the more optimistic scenario for critical care requirements that we examined," it said.

"In addition, even if all patients were able to be treated, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US."

The report said there was now no alternative but to move to a policy of total "suppression" involving the social distancing of the entire population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their family members.

Even then, it said that it was "not at all certain" that the strategy would succeed in the long term.

"The social and economic effects of the measures which are needed to achieve this policy goal will be profound," it said.

"No public health intervention with such disruptive effects on society has been previously attempted for such a long duration of time. How populations and societies will respond remains unclear."

In response, a Government spokesman said that the recommendations put forward its Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) were in line with "best current evidence".

"This is a very fast-moving situation. In order to give the most robust scientific advice Sage draws upon and considers a range of evidence and views to reach its recommendations," the spokesman said.

"Part of this evidence includes the latest modelling data from a number of experts. All Sage recommendations are in line with the best current evidence. We will be publishing further evidence shortly."

Create a FREE account to continue reading

eros

Registration is a free and easy way to support our journalism.

Join our community where you can: comment on stories; sign up to newsletters; enter competitions and access content on our app.

Your email address

Must be at least 6 characters, include an upper and lower case character and a number

You must be at least 18 years old to create an account

* Required fields

Already have an account? SIGN IN

By clicking Create Account you confirm that your data has been entered correctly and you have read and agree to our Terms of use , Cookie policy and Privacy policy .

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

Thank you for registering

Please refresh the page or navigate to another page on the site to be automatically logged in