Coronavirus R rate may have risen above 1 in parts of England, Government admits

The coronavirus R rate may have risen above 1 in parts of England, the Government has admitted.

The reproduction number, the average number of people an infected person passes the disease on to, of coronavirus across the UK remains between 0.7 and 0.9, while across England it is 0.8-1.0.

Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) also published regional values for R in England for the first time, with the South West having the highest range at 0.8-1.1.

The East of England is at 0.7 – 0.9, London, the Midlands, the North West and the South East at 0.8 – 1.0, and the North East and Yorkshire at 0.7 – 1.0.

The coronavirus reproduction rate may have risen above 1 in parts of England, the government's scientific advisory group has said
Jeremy Selwyn

However, experts cautioned against relying on regional R values, saying that as the number of infections falls, regional R values become less reliable.

Instead, from next week the Government will publish the growth rates for regions that are based on data and make fewer assumptions.

If the R rate is above one it means that the disease is on the increase, and on the decline if it is below one.

Experts say R is not the only important measure of the epidemic and it indicates whether the epidemic is trending towards getting bigger or smaller but not how large it is.

Therefore, the number of people currently infected with Covid-19 – and so able to pass it on – is also very important. R should always be considered alongside the number of people currently infected.

The estimates, published by the Government Office for Science, cover each of the NHS England regions.

It comes as the UK coronavirus death toll rose by 202 on Friday.

As of 5pm yesterday, 41,481 people had died in hospitals, care homes and the wider community after testing positive for coronavirus, up from 41,279 the day before.

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Last week research by a Cambridge University/Public Health England joint modelling team revealed suggested the disease transmission of Covid-19 was spreading in the North West, and was declining in other regions, but far more slowly in London than previously.

However, to avoid confusion, the researchers will no longer be doing this as it feeds into the consensus of the R value published by Sage.

Matt Keeling, professor of populations and disease at the University of Warwick, said: “All the ranges are similar and overlapping so we cannot say that any one region is worse than any other region.

“All the ranges are closer to the critical threshold of R=1 than we would ideally like to see – which means that the epidemic is declining relatively slowly.

“This also means we haven’t got much wiggle room for additional relaxation of social distancing measures.”

He added: “As the number of cases becomes smaller in many regions, these predictions will become more uncertain and more biased by small localised outbreaks.

“These are not a measure of risk, they are about the decline of the epidemic.

“To understand risk you need to look at both the incidence of infection and individual behaviour.”

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