The latest YouGov survey conducted for this newspaper gives Boris Johnson an 10-point lead over Ken Livingstone once second preference votes are taken into account. The result is at odds with other recent poll findings that put Mr Livingstone ahead - including a Mori/Unison poll that gave him a lead of four points including the decisive second preference votes and an MRUK/Sunday Times poll showing him leading Mr Johnson by two points including second preferences. By any reckoning, this is an extraordinarily close contest.
Another consequence of the closeness of the race is that Mr Livingstone is sufficiently rattled to fight back by less-than-honest means. His campaign literature alleges that pensioners' Freedom Pass will be threatened if Mr Johnson wins. Alarmed pensioners have been calling Conservative Central Office to ask whether a vote for Mr Johnson means losing free travel. This is nonsense, as Mr Livingstone knows. The Freedom Pass was not the Mayor's invention; it could not be removed by Mr Johnson even if he wanted to. And he does not want to.
Another extraordinary slur cannot have originated from the Mayor, namely, the suggestion, in campaign literature sent to the Bengali community, that Boris would ban the Koran. This suggests desperation among some of Mr Livingstone's supporters.
Another indication of the direction of the contest can be seen from the fact that among national newspapers, only The Guardian and The Observer have come out in support of Mr Livingstone. The Times and Sunday Times, the Daily Telegraph and Sunday Telegraph, The Sun and The Daily Mail all support Mr Johnson, with varying degrees of enthusiasm. We shall see how this plays on Thursday. For both candidates, the lesson is that every vote counts.
