Private schools have been warned they must brace themselves for an exodus of middle class parents as the recession starts to hit school fees.
Management consultant Mungo Dunnett told private school heads they need a plan to cope with the ongoing economic crisis.
Speaking at the Headmasters’ and Headmistresses’ Conference in Belfast, Mr Dunnett, whose consultancy advises independent schools, said: “Education is at the back of the recession cycle. In 2008 bankers were pulling their children out of schools but in 2012 it’s Middle England.
“Parents are making last-minute decisions. They are increasingly demanding value for money and they feel increasingly entitled to ask for it.”
Mr Dunnett, who runs Mungo Dunnett Associates in Oxford, said he believed 2012 was only the middle of the recession, and the economy will not recover until 2016. He added: “2012 is the final straw for a chunk of parents. There is a substantial increase in the percentage of parents reporting fee strain.”
He said long-term trends, such as decreasing numbers of boarding school pupils, fewer Armed Forces families and a drop in the number of girls choosing single sex schools, are being accelerated by the recession. Parents are beginning to “trade down” from full boarding schools to weekly or day schools, or from day schools to “socially acceptable” state schools.
Parents who send their children to private schools are now much more diverse than before, Mr Dunnett said. He added: “All the things that have perpetuated are altering. We need to be cognisant of it.”
He advised schools to create a distinctive brand, which marks them out from other private schools in their area. He also advised them to continue to be selective in their intake, adding that it is only struggling schools that have “indiscriminate admissions”.
