Jim Armitage: How Hammerson nearly spent too much at the shops

Whoosh. There’s the sound of the bullet whizzing past Hammerson shareholders’ heads. Well dodged.

Earlier this year, Hammerson investors got the shopping malls giant’s management to U-turn on their top-dollar bid for rival Intu.

Now, Intu looks set to fall to a far lower bid led by Trafford Centre tycoon John Whittaker.

The price, £2.9 billion compared with Intu’s £3.4 billion, seems ever more realistic today as Intu admits the value of its properties fell 3% in the past quarter.

The market has turned savagely against bricks-and-mortar retailers. The company says rental income will grow by just 0% to 1% in the coming year, and even then only if no more “material” tenants like House of Fraser collapse.

That looks like a pretty big if. Longer term, Intu says it’s targeting growth of 2%-3%. A forecast fraught with danger. Shareholders should take Whittaker’s money and run.

Hammerson investors, breathe a sigh of relief.

Whitbread’s sale of Costa to Coca-Cola was one of the better disposals of UK corporate gems to foreign hands. Coke has the global muscle and expertise to take Costa to levels no other owner could.

But what will Whitbread do with the £3.9 billion proceeds? It hasn’t said yet, but hopefully it won’t return too much to investors.

Its Premier Inn arm has great hopes for expansion in Germany and beyond. The UK hotels return 13% on investment, which hopefully would be replicated overseas.

Where else would shareholders’ Costa cash earn more than that?