Give thanks (for once) for the builders

11 April 2012

So, the disastrous second quarter was not quite so disastrous after all.

Of course, we shouldn't be surprised that billings from the construction sector were higher than first expected - everyone knows what builders' estimates are like.

Anyway, feed in the new figures from Britain's men in hard hats and you get GDP growth of 0.3 per cent for the second quarter. Strip out the royal wedding, the bank holiday weekend and all that other irresponsible fun we allowed ourselves and the economy probably would have expanded at more like 0.8 per cent. That's a pretty respectable number. Punchy, even, when set beside the zero per cent shocker from our friends across the Channel.

Trouble is, all the talk about what happened to our growth in April, May and June seems like misty-eyed musings on yesteryear given what's happened since.

The market attack on Greece, contagion to Italy, Spain and now France, and the beginnings of a new interbank lending freeze make the outlook for this quarter and next look a world away from those innocent spring months.

Exporting manufacturers have been Britain's star-performing sector but their biggest market - the eurozone - is in the biggest crisis since the dawn of the single currency. And all this just as austerity measures are about to tighten the noose further on the British consumer.

We should avoid a double dip, thanks in part to our plucky builders, but it will be by a whisker.

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